Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-06-28

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-06-17) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-06-17 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-17 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-17 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-17 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-17 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-17)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-17) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 392 (353 – 432) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -14 (-23 – -10)
Albania 64 (48 – 78) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 61 (12 – -18)
Algeria 175 (147 – 205) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (8.5 – 40)
Andorra 5 (0 – 13) Unsure 1.4 (0.1 – 2.8) 2.3 (1 – -2.9)
Argentina 2047 (1894 – 2205) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (13 – 22)
Armenia 702 (620 – 783) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 22 (14 – 49)
Australia 29 (17 – 38) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 13 (5.2 – -24)
Austria 46 (32 – 56) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 14 (6.1 – -70)
Azerbaijan 544 (485 – 604) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (10 – 24)
Bahrain 582 (517 – 652) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (15 – 78)
Bangladesh 3757 (3423 – 4027) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 45 (31 – 83)
Belarus 521 (479 – 572) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -28 (-77 – -17)
Belgium 65 (49 – 78) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -23 (48 – -9.3)
Benin 62 (47 – 77) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 15 (7 – -93)
Bolivia 1033 (949 – 1135) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (15 – 35)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 95 (77 – 111) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 13 (7.2 – 60)
Brazil 37695 (34817 – 41231) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (17 – 20)
Bulgaria 111 (91 – 129) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 25 (11 – -71)
Cameroon 253 (220 – 279) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 41 (16 – -62)
Canada 332 (296 – 365) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -75 (59 – -23)
Central African Republic 96 (80 – 115) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 82 (14 – -22)
Chad 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.5 (0.3 – 2.7) 5.7 (1.6 – -3.5)
Chile 5249 (4900 – 5624) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.8) -12 (-21 – -8.6)
China 32 (22 – 42) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) -42 (14 – -8.3)
Colombia 3203 (2919 – 3496) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (14 – 21)
Congo 43 (31 – 54) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 12 (5.7 – -91)
Costa Rica 118 (96 – 136) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (6.7 – 29)
Cote dIvoire 249 (214 – 281) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -59 (48 – -19)
Croatia 39 (27 – 51) Increasing 1.7 (1.2 – 2.1) 4.7 (3 – 10)
Cuba 7 (0 – 11) Unsure 0.9 (0.3 – 1.3) -12 (6.7 – -3.3)
Czechia 103 (79 – 122) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (6.6 – 28)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 157 (135 – 181) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (12 – -76)
Denmark 47 (33 – 58) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 30 (8.4 – -20)
Djibouti 15 (7 – 23) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -21 (8.8 – -4.8)
Dominican Republic 673 (604 – 738) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 16 (12 – 27)
Ecuador 637 (556 – 716) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 41 (19 – -230)
Egypt 1584 (1434 – 1709) Increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 83 (34 – -200)
El Salvador 164 (144 – 188) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 24 (12 – -420)
Equatorial Guinea 102 (76 – 122) Increasing 1.9 (1.4 – 2.3) 3.6 (2.7 – 5.6)
Estonia 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.3 – 2.5) 6.7 (1.6 – -3.1)
Ethiopia 181 (157 – 203) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 140 (21 – -29)
Finland 11 (4 – 16) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 18 (3.9 – -7.1)
France 534 (472 – 592) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (15 – 75)
Gabon 119 (97 – 136) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -47 (31 – -13)
Germany 621 (562 – 682) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 17 (11 – 30)
Ghana 384 (338 – 431) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 27 (15 – 180)
Greece 17 (10 – 25) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.2) -69 (8.6 – -7.1)
Guatemala 530 (473 – 580) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 37 (19 – 380)
Guinea 58 (42 – 71) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -65 (18 – -11)
Guinea Bissau 15 (7 – 22) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 58 (6.1 – -7.7)
Haiti 109 (89 – 126) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -33 (50 – -12)
Honduras 681 (615 – 752) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (11 – 26)
Hungary 8 (1 – 13) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.8) 12 (3.1 – -6.6)
Iceland 5 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.5 – 2.6) 6.3 (1.9 – -5.1)
India 16906 (15515 – 18213) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (16 – 20)
Indonesia 1148 (1038 – 1244) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 46 (26 – 200)
Iran 2650 (2432 – 2847) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 57 (33 – 180)
Iraq 2097 (1899 – 2299) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (11 – 17)
Ireland 8 (3 – 13) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -11 (11 – -3.6)
Israel 367 (316 – 421) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (8.4 – 18)
Italy 281 (236 – 321) Unsure 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 71 (18 – -39)
Japan 77 (59 – 93) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 19 (8.2 – -69)
Kazakhstan 527 (466 – 587) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (11 – 28)
Kenya 167 (143 – 188) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 57 (17 – -39)
Kosovo 105 (78 – 134) Increasing 1.6 (1.3 – 1.9) 5.4 (3.9 – 9.1)
Kuwait 755 (658 – 843) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 16 (12 – 26)
Kyrgyzstan 220 (194 – 245) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7.3 – 21)
Latvia 8 (0 – 20) Unsure 1.5 (0.2 – 2.6) 6.8 (1.7 – -3.6)
Lebanon 27 (17 – 36) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 12 (5 – -28)
Libya 31 (19 – 40) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.6) 10 (4.7 – -54)
Lithuania 6 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.8) 37 (3.1 – -3.9)
Luxembourg 12 (6 – 19) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 9.4 (3.5 – -13)
Madagascar 66 (52 – 80) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 12 (6.2 – 110)
Malawi 56 (41 – 69) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 7.8 (4.6 – 26)
Malaysia 12 (4 – 19) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.2) -12 (12 – -4.1)
Maldives 22 (12 – 31) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -130 (8.9 – -7.8)
Mali 18 (9 – 25) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -21 (11 – -5.5)
Mauritania 212 (186 – 240) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (10 – 57)
Mexico 5703 (5297 – 6169) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (19 – 29)
Moldova 346 (304 – 382) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 82 (24 – -57)
Mongolia 6 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.6 – 2.8) 5 (1.8 – -6.4)
Morocco 319 (270 – 363) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.6) 7.1 (5.5 – 10)
Nepal 543 (469 – 618) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (14 – 64)
Netherlands 92 (72 – 109) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -16 (-190 – -8.5)
New Zealand 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.6 – 3.1) 4.2 (1.6 – -6.1)
Niger 9 (2 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 56 (4.1 – -5)
Nigeria 633 (570 – 699) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 39 (20 – 430)
North Macedonia 138 (115 – 156) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -55 (38 – -16)
Norway 20 (9 – 27) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 19 (5.3 – -13)
Oman 1229 (1110 – 1354) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (15 – 46)
Pakistan 4278 (4064 – 4483) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -30 (-42 – -24)
Palestine 132 (111 – 154) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 6.4 (4.4 – 12)
Panama 842 (765 – 918) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 29 (18 – 66)
Paraguay 55 (38 – 69) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.8) 5.5 (3.6 – 12)
Peru 3708 (3401 – 4025) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -180 (69 – -39)
Philippines 817 (734 – 896) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (11 – 21)
Poland 316 (276 – 353) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -38 (180 – -17)
Portugal 366 (326 – 414) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 34 (17 – 2300)
Puerto Rico 100 (78 – 119) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) 2200 (17 – -18)
Qatar 1113 (1013 – 1202) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -74 (130 – -28)
Romania 344 (296 – 387) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 24 (14 – 85)
Russia 7803 (7320 – 8269) Unsure 1 (1 – 1) -580 (140 – -91)
Saudi Arabia 3749 (3514 – 3996) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -90 (-2800 – -46)
Senegal 105 (86 – 123) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -290 (21 – -18)
Serbia 128 (104 – 152) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 11 (7 – 29)
Sierra Leone 18 (8 – 24) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -16 (15 – -5.2)
Singapore 199 (171 – 226) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -23 (-1100 – -11)
Slovakia 13 (5 – 18) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2) 6.9 (3 – -23)
Somalia 27 (15 – 36) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -56 (10 – -7.6)
South Africa 5391 (4897 – 5904) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (13 – 19)
South Korea 45 (33 – 57) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 94 (11 – -14)
South Sudan 20 (12 – 30) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -26 (11 – -6)
Spain 355 (312 – 394) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 60 (22 – -73)
Sri Lanka 15 (5 – 22) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 14 (4.1 – -9.9)
Sudan 137 (115 – 157) Decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -15 (-45 – -8.8)
Sweden 1362 (1177 – 1526) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 26)
Switzerland 36 (23 – 46) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 16 (6.1 – -23)
Tajikistan 60 (44 – 74) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -210 (15 – -13)
Thailand 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.3) 7.4 (2.2 – -5.1)
Tunisia 7 (1 – 14) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.6) -34 (4.3 – -3.4)
Turkey 1392 (1280 – 1530) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 140 (40 – -89)
Uganda 15 (6 – 21) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 16 (4.5 – -9.6)
Ukraine 923 (841 – 1013) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 23 (16 – 43)
United Arab Emirates 426 (372 – 471) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 47 (20 – -110)
United Kingdom 1144 (1053 – 1240) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1) -130 (97 – -39)
United Republic of Tanzania 10 (3 – 15) Decreasing 0.7 (0.4 – 1) -8.5 (34 – -3.8)
United States of America 36511 (33571 – 40103) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 15 (13 – 17)
Uzbekistan 211 (182 – 233) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 26 (13 – -930)
Venezuela 169 (144 – 189) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 16 (8.9 – 69)
Yemen 29 (16 – 39) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -19 (13 – -5.6)
Zambia 18 (9 – 25) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) 64 (5.7 – -6.9)
Zimbabwe 17 (9 – 25) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -470 (7.3 – -7)