Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-06-28

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-06-17) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-06-17 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-17 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-17 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-17 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-06-17 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-17)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-06-17) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	392 (353 – 432)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.8 – 0.9)	-14 (-23 – -10)
Albania	64 (48 – 78)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	61 (12 – -18)
Algeria	175 (147 – 205)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (8.5 – 40)
Andorra	5 (0 – 13)	Unsure	1.4 (0.1 – 2.8)	2.3 (1 – -2.9)
Argentina	2047 (1894 – 2205)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (13 – 22)
Armenia	702 (620 – 783)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	22 (14 – 49)
Australia	29 (17 – 38)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	13 (5.2 – -24)
Austria	46 (32 – 56)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.5)	14 (6.1 – -70)
Azerbaijan	544 (485 – 604)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (10 – 24)
Bahrain	582 (517 – 652)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	26 (15 – 78)
Bangladesh	3757 (3423 – 4027)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	45 (31 – 83)
Belarus	521 (479 – 572)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-28 (-77 – -17)
Belgium	65 (49 – 78)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-23 (48 – -9.3)
Benin	62 (47 – 77)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	15 (7 – -93)
Bolivia	1033 (949 – 1135)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	21 (15 – 35)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	95 (77 – 111)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	13 (7.2 – 60)
Brazil	37695 (34817 – 41231)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (17 – 20)
Bulgaria	111 (91 – 129)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	25 (11 – -71)
Cameroon	253 (220 – 279)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	41 (16 – -62)
Canada	332 (296 – 365)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-75 (59 – -23)
Central African Republic	96 (80 – 115)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	82 (14 – -22)
Chad	4 (0 – 8)	Unsure	1.5 (0.3 – 2.7)	5.7 (1.6 – -3.5)
Chile	5249 (4900 – 5624)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 0.8)	-12 (-21 – -8.6)
China	32 (22 – 42)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	-42 (14 – -8.3)
Colombia	3203 (2919 – 3496)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (14 – 21)
Congo	43 (31 – 54)	Increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.5)	12 (5.7 – -91)
Costa Rica	118 (96 – 136)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	11 (6.7 – 29)
Cote dIvoire	249 (214 – 281)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-59 (48 – -19)
Croatia	39 (27 – 51)	Increasing	1.7 (1.2 – 2.1)	4.7 (3 – 10)
Cuba	7 (0 – 11)	Unsure	0.9 (0.3 – 1.3)	-12 (6.7 – -3.3)
Czechia	103 (79 – 122)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	11 (6.6 – 28)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	157 (135 – 181)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	29 (12 – -76)
Denmark	47 (33 – 58)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	30 (8.4 – -20)
Djibouti	15 (7 – 23)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1.2)	-21 (8.8 – -4.8)
Dominican Republic	673 (604 – 738)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	16 (12 – 27)
Ecuador	637 (556 – 716)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	41 (19 – -230)
Egypt	1584 (1434 – 1709)	Increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	83 (34 – -200)
El Salvador	164 (144 – 188)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	24 (12 – -420)
Equatorial Guinea	102 (76 – 122)	Increasing	1.9 (1.4 – 2.3)	3.6 (2.7 – 5.6)
Estonia	4 (0 – 9)	Unsure	1.3 (0.3 – 2.5)	6.7 (1.6 – -3.1)
Ethiopia	181 (157 – 203)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	140 (21 – -29)
Finland	11 (4 – 16)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.6)	18 (3.9 – -7.1)
France	534 (472 – 592)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	26 (15 – 75)
Gabon	119 (97 – 136)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-47 (31 – -13)
Germany	621 (562 – 682)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	17 (11 – 30)
Ghana	384 (338 – 431)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	27 (15 – 180)
Greece	17 (10 – 25)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.2)	-69 (8.6 – -7.1)
Guatemala	530 (473 – 580)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	37 (19 – 380)
Guinea	58 (42 – 71)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-65 (18 – -11)
Guinea Bissau	15 (7 – 22)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	58 (6.1 – -7.7)
Haiti	109 (89 – 126)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-33 (50 – -12)
Honduras	681 (615 – 752)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (11 – 26)
Hungary	8 (1 – 13)	Unsure	1.2 (0.5 – 1.8)	12 (3.1 – -6.6)
Iceland	5 (0 – 9)	Likely increasing	1.6 (0.5 – 2.6)	6.3 (1.9 – -5.1)
India	16906 (15515 – 18213)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (16 – 20)
Indonesia	1148 (1038 – 1244)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	46 (26 – 200)
Iran	2650 (2432 – 2847)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	57 (33 – 180)
Iraq	2097 (1899 – 2299)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (11 – 17)
Ireland	8 (3 – 13)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1.2)	-11 (11 – -3.6)
Israel	367 (316 – 421)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	11 (8.4 – 18)
Italy	281 (236 – 321)	Unsure	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	71 (18 – -39)
Japan	77 (59 – 93)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	19 (8.2 – -69)
Kazakhstan	527 (466 – 587)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (11 – 28)
Kenya	167 (143 – 188)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	57 (17 – -39)
Kosovo	105 (78 – 134)	Increasing	1.6 (1.3 – 1.9)	5.4 (3.9 – 9.1)
Kuwait	755 (658 – 843)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	16 (12 – 26)
Kyrgyzstan	220 (194 – 245)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.4)	11 (7.3 – 21)
Latvia	8 (0 – 20)	Unsure	1.5 (0.2 – 2.6)	6.8 (1.7 – -3.6)
Lebanon	27 (17 – 36)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.6)	12 (5 – -28)
Libya	31 (19 – 40)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.6)	10 (4.7 – -54)
Lithuania	6 (0 – 12)	Unsure	1.1 (0.4 – 1.8)	37 (3.1 – -3.9)
Luxembourg	12 (6 – 19)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.8)	9.4 (3.5 – -13)
Madagascar	66 (52 – 80)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	12 (6.2 – 110)
Malawi	56 (41 – 69)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.7)	7.8 (4.6 – 26)
Malaysia	12 (4 – 19)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1.2)	-12 (12 – -4.1)
Maldives	22 (12 – 31)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-130 (8.9 – -7.8)
Mali	18 (9 – 25)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-21 (11 – -5.5)
Mauritania	212 (186 – 240)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	17 (10 – 57)
Mexico	5703 (5297 – 6169)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	23 (19 – 29)
Moldova	346 (304 – 382)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1.1)	82 (24 – -57)
Mongolia	6 (0 – 11)	Likely increasing	1.7 (0.6 – 2.8)	5 (1.8 – -6.4)
Morocco	319 (270 – 363)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.6)	7.1 (5.5 – 10)
Nepal	543 (469 – 618)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	23 (14 – 64)
Netherlands	92 (72 – 109)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1)	-16 (-190 – -8.5)
New Zealand	5 (0 – 10)	Likely increasing	1.9 (0.6 – 3.1)	4.2 (1.6 – -6.1)
Niger	9 (2 – 15)	Unsure	1.2 (0.6 – 1.8)	56 (4.1 – -5)
Nigeria	633 (570 – 699)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	39 (20 – 430)
North Macedonia	138 (115 – 156)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-55 (38 – -16)
Norway	20 (9 – 27)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.5)	19 (5.3 – -13)
Oman	1229 (1110 – 1354)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	23 (15 – 46)
Pakistan	4278 (4064 – 4483)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 0.9)	-30 (-42 – -24)
Palestine	132 (111 – 154)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.7)	6.4 (4.4 – 12)
Panama	842 (765 – 918)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	29 (18 – 66)
Paraguay	55 (38 – 69)	Increasing	1.5 (1.2 – 1.8)	5.5 (3.6 – 12)
Peru	3708 (3401 – 4025)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-180 (69 – -39)
Philippines	817 (734 – 896)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (11 – 21)
Poland	316 (276 – 353)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-38 (180 – -17)
Portugal	366 (326 – 414)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	34 (17 – 2300)
Puerto Rico	100 (78 – 119)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	2200 (17 – -18)
Qatar	1113 (1013 – 1202)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-74 (130 – -28)
Romania	344 (296 – 387)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	24 (14 – 85)
Russia	7803 (7320 – 8269)	Unsure	1 (1 – 1)	-580 (140 – -91)
Saudi Arabia	3749 (3514 – 3996)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-90 (-2800 – -46)
Senegal	105 (86 – 123)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-290 (21 – -18)
Serbia	128 (104 – 152)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	11 (7 – 29)
Sierra Leone	18 (8 – 24)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-16 (15 – -5.2)
Singapore	199 (171 – 226)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-23 (-1100 – -11)
Slovakia	13 (5 – 18)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.9 – 2)	6.9 (3 – -23)
Somalia	27 (15 – 36)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-56 (10 – -7.6)
South Africa	5391 (4897 – 5904)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (13 – 19)
South Korea	45 (33 – 57)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	94 (11 – -14)
South Sudan	20 (12 – 30)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.2)	-26 (11 – -6)
Spain	355 (312 – 394)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	60 (22 – -73)
Sri Lanka	15 (5 – 22)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.6)	14 (4.1 – -9.9)
Sudan	137 (115 – 157)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-15 (-45 – -8.8)
Sweden	1362 (1177 – 1526)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (11 – 26)
Switzerland	36 (23 – 46)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	16 (6.1 – -23)
Tajikistan	60 (44 – 74)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-210 (15 – -13)
Thailand	5 (0 – 10)	Unsure	1.4 (0.5 – 2.3)	7.4 (2.2 – -5.1)
Tunisia	7 (1 – 14)	Unsure	1.1 (0.4 – 1.6)	-34 (4.3 – -3.4)
Turkey	1392 (1280 – 1530)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	140 (40 – -89)
Uganda	15 (6 – 21)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	16 (4.5 – -9.6)
Ukraine	923 (841 – 1013)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	23 (16 – 43)
United Arab Emirates	426 (372 – 471)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	47 (20 – -110)
United Kingdom	1144 (1053 – 1240)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1)	-130 (97 – -39)
United Republic of Tanzania	10 (3 – 15)	Decreasing	0.7 (0.4 – 1)	-8.5 (34 – -3.8)
United States of America	36511 (33571 – 40103)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	15 (13 – 17)
Uzbekistan	211 (182 – 233)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	26 (13 – -930)
Venezuela	169 (144 – 189)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	16 (8.9 – 69)
Yemen	29 (16 – 39)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-19 (13 – -5.6)
Zambia	18 (9 – 25)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.5)	64 (5.7 – -6.9)
Zimbabwe	17 (9 – 25)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-470 (7.3 – -7)